APPLYING TIME SERIES MODELS FOR PREDICTING THE RATE OF INFLUENZA FLU IN HUNG YEN PROVINCE

  • Luong Xuan Hong Hung Yen University of Technology and Education
  • Pham Thi Anh Huong Hung Yen University of Technology and Education
  • Nguyen Van Chien Hanoi University of Science and Technology
  • Dam Quang Thinh Hung Yen University of Technology and Education
  • Tran Thi Thu Huyen Hung Yen University of Technology and Education
  • Nguyen Van Hau Hung Yen University of Technology and Education
Keywords: time series models, Auto regression model, moving average model, Integrated Autoregression model, influenza flu

Abstract

Hung Yen is a province located in the center of the Red River Delta, North Vietnam is also a province heavily affected by infectious diseases. In recent times, many scientists have studied and applied time series models to predict the rate and the number of infectious diseases, thereby helping the health-care organizations to prevent the spread of deadly infectious disease outbreaks (e.g. dengue, diarrhea, influenza, etc.). In this paper, we investigate and apply three time series models: Auto regression (AR), moving average (MA), and Integrated Autoregression model. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Experiments show that the ARIMA model gives better results.

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Published
2022-03-31
How to Cite
Luong Xuan Hong, Pham Thi Anh Huong, Nguyen Van Chien, Dam Quang Thinh, Tran Thi Thu Huyen, & Nguyen Van Hau. (2022). APPLYING TIME SERIES MODELS FOR PREDICTING THE RATE OF INFLUENZA FLU IN HUNG YEN PROVINCE. UTEHY Journal of Science and Technology, 33, 7-13. Retrieved from http://jst.utehy.edu.vn/index.php/jst/article/view/515